What Might Be The Problem With Drake Equation?

The question of whether ETs are there has been bogling the minds of scientists for long. How the hell can we get to know this given our limited senses and instruments? One day they decided to calculate if life exists in other planets!!If there is a champion of organising ignorance in science, then it is the calculated guesses provided by the famous Drake's equation. It purports to eat some numbers and then spit out the population of our galaxy! After some wild guesses, scientists were soon amusing themselves that our galaxy alone is teaming with life. Thaosands of them are actively communicating with us. So it was time to create the project, SETI. Even though SETI was saying that it is extreemly likely that ETs are communicating with us, based on Drake's equation, they also maintain that ET explanation of a given signal must be the last one to resort to, insinuating that it is very unlikely that ETs are out there communicating with us! So they donnot realy beleive what they think they beleive!Now let us check the equation in details. How the hell can we calculate people? It says:N=R.fp.ne.fe.fi.fc.LN=number of ETs communicating with usR=rate of star formation in a galaxyfp=The fraction of stars that has planetsne=Average number of planets per starfe=Fraction of the planets that developed lifefi=fraction of those lifes that developed intelligencefc=fraction of those intelligent life that developed interstellar communicationL=duration taken by the communicating ETsSo we get the number of people by multiplying time by stars, by planets etc! One amusing thing about this equation is that if in case even one of these factors is zero, the entire thing is a fatter zero! The equation will only be usefull in crude jocks accompanying ETs talk! Some of these factors is infact the very thing we are searching! If we are seeking to know if ETs are there and yet we know already the number of ETs that developed interstellar communication, then the entire equation is useless. If on the other hand we don't know the number of ETs that developed interstellar communication, the entire equation is also useless!

There are many baseless assumptions that goes along with artributing the population of a galaxy to an equation. The glarring one is artributing everything, and life in particular, to the works of blind chances. Thus the number of planets in a given galaxy is proportional to the number of life there. Right? Wrong!!

Lets enumerate sobering fact about our solar system.
1.)The mainstream stories offered for formation of solar system are ridiculus.
2.)We have the earth situated at just the right distance from the sun to allow life
3.)The earth is just tilted well to allow for seasons
4.)The moon just orbit at the exact place to facilitate life
5)our fine structure constant is just the right one to allow life
6.)our sun is just the right size neaded to sustain life
7.) The earth is of just the right size to allow life
8)the earth's magnetic field, atmosphere, ozone layer etc is the one precisely neaded for life.

The list is endless. This to me suggest that there should be only 3 factors appearing in Drake equation.
1) rate of star formation
2.)The fraction of stars that contain life sustaining planets
3.)The amount of time such planets remain capable of sustaining life

In other words, life is a natural consequence of a condusive enviroment. The probability of finding life at some time in a life sustaining planet is exactly one! Don't ask me why!

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Replies

Roaring Lovely November 13, 2016 at 9:38am

There are many baseless assumptions that goes along with artributing the population of a galaxy to an equation. The glarring one is artributing everything, and life in particular, to the works of blind chances. Thus the number of planets in a given galaxy is proportional to the number of life there. Right? Wrong!!

Lets enumerate sobering fact about our solar system.
1.)The mainstream stories offered for formation of solar system are ridiculus.
2.)We have the earth situated at just the right distance from the sun to allow life
3.)The earth is just tilted well to allow for seasons
4.)The moon just orbit at the exact place to facilitate life
5)our fine structure constant is just the right one to allow life
6.)our sun is just the right size neaded to sustain life
7.) The earth is of just the right size to allow life
8)the earth's magnetic field, atmosphere, ozone layer etc is the one precisely neaded for life.

The list is endless. This to me suggest that there should be only 3 factors appearing in Drake equation.
1) rate of star formation
2.)The fraction of stars that contain life sustaining planets
3.)The amount of time such planets remain capable of sustaining life

In other words, life is a natural consequence of a condusive enviroment. The probability of finding life at some time in a life sustaining planet is exactly one! Don't ask me why!
Roaring Lovely November 13, 2016 at 9:13am

Of course SETI eventually got disapointed, after some over 40 years cropping in the pitch dark, 'looking for a black cat', 'which perhaps doesn't exist'. But I tend to see the problem being on the means of interstellar communication employed by a sufficiently advanced civilization. We have an habit of thinking that a modern means of communication is the best there can be accross the universe! This is to say that if SETI was established back in stonnage, they would be seeking smock signals from ETs! Of course such would be futile! If quantum entanglement is being employed by advance civilizations, then Einstein's mesmerisms will probably keep us outdated for the next million or so years!
Roaring Lovely November 11, 2016 at 6:23pm

The factor that I highly suspect that it is zero is fe: the number of planets that developed life. This is exactly where I point out the real problem with Drake way of thinking. It is entirely mainstream science pattern of thinking, giving no room to the possibility that we donnot yet well understand how the universe work, how stars form how life form, what kind of life are possible etc. That is why there is no ADDITIONS in the equation. We have only MULTIPLICATIONS.

fe actually should expand to give room for more possibilities. it should go:

fe=fk+fs+fd+fg+fn

fk=number of carbon based life,
fd=number of life if spontaneous abiogenesis is true
fg=number of life if God created life
fn=number of life if living beings are genetically engineered.

Then Drake assumes that intelligent life must only develope on an earth-like planet! He for instance completely have no idea of possible life inside the star itself! Yes, a kinda life adobted to such a hot enviroment!! So an entire new set of terms must be added to the right hand side of the equation. We must have:

N=Nd+Ne

Nd=the right hand side of the Drake equation
Ne=term that takes care of life that does not have to form on planets.