This astrology article was forced into suppression and buried by the French media due to actions by a group called CSICOP (Committee For Scientific Investigation Of Claims Of The Paranormal) after Gauquelin proved his statistical thesis to be correct. The response from CSICOP was "IMPOSSIBLE!!" A better description of their response was "don't bother us with the facts, our minds are already made up."
Please note that this "burying of the facts" is still reminiscent today, as similar organizations (i.e. New Mexicans For Sound Science) try to suppress real scientific knowledge or paranormal experiences, be it the temperature required for jet fuel to melt New York skyscraper supports or the claim of five alien races that regularly visit us (according to a former Canadian Defense Minister).
Now on to the article:
Above & Below: Journal of Astrological Studies, Issue 11, Fall 1988, pp. 4-7. Since the publication of my first book L'Influence des Astres (The Influence of the Stars) in 1955, I have published numerous works regarding my discovery of a series of highly significant statistical correlations between planetary positions and the birth times of eminently successful people. One of the strongest correlations I have observed is that sports champions tend to be born when the planet Mars is either rising or culminating in the sky much more often than it does for ordinary people (see Figure 1). This particular observation, later called "the Mars effect" by researchers who have investigated it, has been verified by the experiments of other scientists. In this presentation I wish to summarize:
Figure 1.
Figure 1. Michel Gauquelin's first discovery of "the Mars effect" at the birth of 570 French sports champions. Solid red line: Actual frequencies. Dotted green line:expected frequencies. Sports champions were born more often than ordinary people after the rise of Mars (Mars in the 12th house [Gauquelin's "key" sectors 1 and 2; ed.]) and after the culmination of Mars (Mars in the 9th house [Gauquelin's "key" sectors 6 and 7; ed]). This figure is taken from Michel Gauquelin's first book L'Influence des Astres published in 1955. [Gauquelin used a system of 18 sectors at the time, in reverse order of the astrological houses; later he used a system of 12 sectors, still in reverse order of the houses; ed.] Initially, my findings were met with incredulity and skepticism from the scientific community. Some authors claimed that my results, the Mars effect in particular, are due entirely to astronomical or demographic artifacts (for example, Jerome, 1973). However, over the years, independent studies by scientists have verified my methods and results. These studies can be divided into two categories, theoretical analysis and empirical control of the experiment. Two skeptical scientists examined my methodology on theoretical grounds. Dr. Jean Porte, Administrator at the Institut National de la Statistique at des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), Paris, carefully examined my approach in the finding for Mars and sports champions. He states decisively in the foreword to our volume on methods, "I have looked for errors in the present work–and I have found none" (Porte, 1957). Twenty years later, skeptic astronomer Dennis Rawlins produced a memorandum in which he investigated the main methodological objection against the Mars effect–the demographic computation, which Rawlins called "the dawn factor". Rawlins rejects the dawn factor objection on the basis of astronomical computations. He states, "Therefore, one concludes that Gauquelin has made fair allowance for the effect under investigation" (Rawlins, 1978). The controls of the expected frequencies of the Mars effect have an empirical basis, and this is the other area that skeptical observers examined. Generally, these observers were unaware of the numerous controls I had already made, or they were not convinced of them. They wanted to carry out controls for themselves using their own procedures and this desire gave birth to the Comité Para experiment and the Zelen test. The Comité Para ReplicationThe Belgian Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Alleged Paranormal Phenomena (Comité Para) is composed of scientists, including astronomers, demographers, and statisticians. This committee is strongly opposed to the recognition of any paranormal phenomena, and the Mars effect appeared to them to be a paranormal claim. Not convinced by the statistical proofs I had provided, they decided to gather a fresh group of 535 sports champions from which they obtained quite similar results (see Figure 2). Figure 2. The Mars Effect and Sports Champions: Comparison of Gauquelin and Comité Para Results
Figure 2 Sources: M. Gauquelin, Les hommes et les Astres (1960); and in Journal of Interdisciplinary Cycle Research 3 (1972); and Comité Para in Nouvelles Brèves 43 (1976). Considering that there has been much misunderstanding of the Comité Para's successful replication of the Mars effect, I here include a copy of the table published in the Comité's own report (Comité Para, 1976) (Table 1).
Explanation of Table 1, from left to right: 1st column: Classe means Sector; 2nd column: Fréquence observée means observed frequency; 3rd column: Fréquence calculée means expected frequency; 4th column: difference between observed and expected frequency; 5th column: square of the difference. For comments, see text. (from Para Committee, 1976, p. 330). The table compares the observed distribution of Mars in each of the 12 chart sectors for the Comité Para sample (535 champions) compared with the expected distribution, showing the noticeable difference between the two. This difference gives a chi square of 26.66 that, with 11 degrees of freedom, is significant at the .01 level of chi square = 24.7. The Comité Pare report states unequivocally (p. 331), "The distribution of the actual frequencies of Mars is far from uniform, and displays the same general pattern found by M. M. Gauquelin in samples of other sports champions. The main characteristic of this pattern is a clear predominance in sector "1" (rising) above all the others. The Comité Para therefore gives its agreement on this point with the results of M.M. Gauquelin" (Comité Para, 1976). The Comité Para was very surprised by its own positive results. Jean Dath, Professor of Engineering at the Ecole Royale Militaire of Brussels, and Jean Dommanget, an astronomer at the Brussels Royal Observatory who had worked actively on the project, began to doubt my methods, even though they had accepted them six years earlier. A discussion then ensued on the value of the calculation of expected frequencies, which the Comité Para suspected had a flaw, probably of demographic origin, which could account for the Mars effect by some "normal" cause. The Comité Para thus undertook several counter experiments as a test. The following is the most effective of these experiments. Comité Para Counter-ExperimentA crucial test for judging any hypothetical demographic or astronomical bias is to use the same distribution as that of the champions' births (i.e. the same year, month, day, place and time of birth), but to shuffle the times of birth. Each champion keeps his real birth date and place, but is given the birth time of the preceding champion according to alphabetical order. Thus, the test group has exactly the same demographic and astronomical data as the champions' group with real birth times. The Comité Para repeated this test nine times, each time assigning each champion the birth time of the next previous champion in the original sequence. For example, in the first control test, champion number two keeps his birth data and place, but receives the birth time of champion number one, whereas champion number one receives the birth time of champion number 535, and so on. In the second control test each champion is shifted back two spots in the original sequence so that champion number two receives the birth time of champion number 535, and so on. The results of the test are given in Table 2 (taken from Dommanget, 1970; see also Gauquelin, 1972, 1982).
Explanation and comments on Table 2: "Classement alphabetique" means "alphabetical order." The columns, from left to right are as follows: c1 is chart sectors by which Mars is to be tested; ƒ0 is actual distribution of Mars at the birth of the champions; ƒ1 to ƒ9is distributions of Mars for the nine counter-experiments; ƒ1.9 is the nine counter-experiments taken together (each value is the average of the nine frequencies obtained for each of the 12 sectors). At the bottom of the table, the two lines marked c2 and Prefer to chi square and probability. The values are obtained by comparing the actual distribution ƒ0 with each counter-experiment distribution ƒ1, ƒ2, ... ƒ9. The differences are all significant. Those between ƒ0 and ƒ1, ƒ3, ƒ4, ƒ6, ƒ7, and ƒ9 are significant at the .001 level. The comparison between ƒ0 and ƒ1.9 (last column) is significant at .007. (from Dommanget, 1970) The results show that the Mars distributions for the nine counter-experiments significantly differ from the distribution of Mars for the real birth times of the champions. In conclusion, it is demonstrated that the Mars effect, replicated and tested by the Comité Para, cannot be considered to be an artifact or a demographic error. Moreover, the values found in Table 2, column f1.9 are very close to the theoretical (expected) values I calculated by my methodology, which were used previously by the Comité Para itself (see Table 1, third column). Surprisingly, this was not the final conclusion of the Comité Para report. In its report, the Comité Para discarded the results of its own counter-experiments. The Comité reasoned that it is "impossible" to calculate any expected frequencies for Mars because the problem is too complicated. The report claims, without being specific, that the Mars experiments make some methodological mistake somewhere. The Zelen test has served to clear up this situation. The Zelen TestProfessor Marvin Zelen, now Chairman of the Department of Biostatistics at Harvard University, proposed another experiment that later became known as "the Zelen test" (Zelen, 1976). In Zelen's view, this experiment would prove whether or not the Mars effect can be found for ordinary people just as well as for champion athletes. If it is true, stated Zelen, that the Mars effect is nothing but the consequence of an artifact, then all persons born on the same day and in the same place as the champions ought to have been born in greater numbers at the rise and culmination of Mars. To test this hypothesis, it was necessary to write to the birth registry offices where the champions were born. The birth times would be requested of everyone born on the same day and year as the champions. Thus, they would be born under the identical astronomical and demographic conditions. Calculation of the Mars positions at the birth times would either prove or disprove the validity of the Mars effect link to champion athletes. I agreed to carry out the test under the close supervision of Professors Zelen, Kurtz, and Abell. I managed to collect 16,756 birth times of other people born within three days in the same places as 303 sports champions taken from the whole group of 2,088 champions. All the data was gathered in accordance with a very impartial procedure that Zelen was aware of previously.1 When I had gathered the data, I sent Paul Kurtz, Chairman of the American Committee for the Scientific Investigation of the Paranormal (CSICOP) photocopies of all the birth data obtained. The results of the test were published (Gauquelin, 1977). The whole control sample gives an unequivocal answer to the Zelen test. The planet Mars is rising and culminating (in "key sectors") in greater proportion for sports champions than for the total of all other births registered on the same days in the same place as the champions. Figure 3, taken from the Zelen test report, graphically illustrates the main empirical evidence. Figure 3. Zelen Test Figure 3. Zelen Test. Mars in Key Sectors for sports champions versus other births. The observed number of sports champion's births with Mars in the key sector (*) is significantly higher than the expected number calculated for non-champions born in the same place, for each of the ±3 days considered. (from Gauquelin, 1977) At the moment, there is no longer any doubt about the validity of my methodology. Three members of CSICOP, Professors Abell, Kurtz, and Zelen, eventually acknowledged the correctness of the empirical controls. "Gauquelin adequately allowed for demographic and astronomical factors in predicting the expected distribution of Mars sectors for birth times in the general population." (Abell, Kurtz, Zelen, 1983). This acknowledgment caused a considerable stir! Professor Ertel's DemonstrationDoubts, however, remained among skeptics. "Nobody could be certain whether sampling bias or perhaps data manipulation had played a role." (Abell, Kurtz, Zelen, 1983). These doubts raised Professor Ertel's curiosity. In order to find out how clean my database was, Ertel traveled from Göttingen University, West Germany, to my laboratory in Paris and checked my files. My most fundamental hypothesis was tested–the higher the rank of professional eminence, the more pronounced the correlated planetary effect would be (Gauquelin, 1955, 1960). This theory of eminence was objectified by Ertel with the help of citation frequencies, a sensitive procedure I myself had not yet used. The entire total of 4,391 sports champions was subjected to this procedure. The results of this experiment clearly support the eminence theory. Mars effect percentages increase steadily from champions in rank one (lowest) of a citation scale to champions in rank five (highest) (Figure 4). Fudging the data or unintentionally distorting it by bias, Ertel concludes, would never have produced a functional relation, based on a vast amount of specific lexico-biographical and historical information (Ertel, 1988). Figure 4. Eminence Effect for Mars Figure 4. The eminence effect for Mars among champions confirmed by Professor Ertel's experiment. Solid red line: Mars Key Sector percentage (m%) for champions of five ranks (5 = highest rank) based on citation frequencies (N=4391). The Mars effect increases when the citation frequencies increase (for details see text). The vertical bars show the ranges of possible chance variation for p=0.95. (The ranges of confidence increase with ranks, which is due to decreasing numbers of individuals [see text]). Having now heard the testimony of all doubters, who have answered every one of their own arguments with the help of objective experiments, one must reasonably conclude that there is very strong scientific evidence in favor of the reality of the Mars effect. Notes1. "Michel Gauquelin had long before sent him (Zelen) three detailed descriptions of the sampling procedure which were entirely straightforward and barred Gauquelin himself from influencing the data." (Professor Richard Kammann, 1982).ist, 36, 1, 32-33. Copyright © 1988 by Michel Gauquelin. Above & Below: Journal of Astrological Studies, Issue 11, Fall, pp. 4-7, (1988). This document may be reproduced and distributed without permission on the condition that acknowledgement is given to its author. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Can his findings be replicated by someone who knows nothing of astrology?
ACUTE OBSERVER: here's an article by a psychology professor confirming Gauquelin's work to be viable, but in another area outside "The Mars Effect."
New Study Confirms Gauquelin ‘Plus Zones’
Psychology professor finds ingenious way to test controversial astrological assumptions
When in the last century French statistician Michael Gauquelin published the results of his ground-breaking statistical studies examining some basic tenets of astrology response from the academic community was anything but kind.
Gauquelin’s work extended over a period of 23 years between 1949 and 1973. In a series of studies he statistically tested how the planets influenced everything from character traits to heredity, athletic prowess and the career paths taken by professionals who are eminent in their fields. Mostly, it was the studies dealing with eminent professionals and elite athletes that created such a ruckus in the scientific community.
Initially, in a study involving 508 births, Gauquelin impressively demonstrated a correlation of Mars and Saturn with physicians at a chance level in the millions to one range. Simply, in the birth charts of prominent physicians, Saturn or Mars were either rising or culminating in so-called Gauquelin “plus zones” with a significantly greater frequency than expected by chance.
One of the Gauquelin plus zones straddles what astrologers call the ascendant or rising sign on the birth chart’s eastern horizon. Another hugs what astronomers call the meridian plane and astrologers refer to as the midheaven. Traditionally, planets posited near these “angles” in a birth chart are believed to express their influence more powerfully in the individual’s life. Gauquelin had similar success correlating other professions with the planets traditionally identified with them. For example, Mars turned up in the plus zones for elite athletes, Saturn was there for scientists, the Moon for writers and Jupiter for actors and politicians. The significance level for some of these correlations was also in the millions to one chance level. However, this result applied only to eminent professionals and elite athletes and was not present in the birth charts of ordinary athletes or professionals who were not eminent in their fields, which gave critics some contentious talking points.
Canines to the Rescue
Michael Gauquelin is not the only researcher to demonstrate that planets rising on the Eastern horizon or culminating near the midheaven are more influential. A novel study by another French scientist, the late Prof. Suzel Fuzeau-Braesch of Paris University, sought to determine whether the behavior of 500 pedigreed puppies from 100 different litters would measurably correlate to rising or culminating planets in their birth charts. She was advised in this unique project by Michael’s wife, Francoise Gauquelin, a statistician who also was closely involved with her husband in his work.
The whelping of a litter of puppies can extend over a period of several hours with as little as 15 minutes – or as much as two hours – between births. So birth charts lay out differently for every pup in a litter. The pups were closely monitored through the first eight weeks of life, but the hypothesized results were apparent almost immediately. Prof. Fuzeau-Braesch discovered that the dominant pups – the more aggressive, assertive, tail-wagging leaders of every group – had either the Sun or Jupiter rising or culminating in their birth charts with a frequency that far exceeded the threshold of significance established for the test.
Depending upon whatever else is going on in the heavens at the time, astrologers might describe humans with these same prominent planetary placements as charismatic, dominant, strong, sociable or influential. And psychologists might use the term extrovert when labeling these same essentially positive, outgoing personality traits. At Johnson State College in Vermont, Psychology and Counseling Professor David Fink studied the Gauquelin results and came up with an ingenious way to test whether planets in the plus zones could predict introversion-extraversion behavioral traits as measured by the Eysenck Personality Inventory (EPI) questionnaire.
Prof. Fink directs Johnson State College’s master’s program in counseling. He first encountered Gauquelin’s research in the 1980s and describes his interest in the statistician’s work in this way:
“My field is the training of counselors and psychotherapists. We are vitally interested in any tool that helps us understand people and the challenging issues that bring them to seek help in therapy. The Gauquelin research stimulated my interest in examining whether the astrological birth chart might prove useful as an empirically defensible tool for assessing personality dimensions.”
A More Promising Approach
Rather than testing the birth data of eminent professionals, Prof. Fink found a more promising – and less controversial – way to test the Gauquelin plus zones. Over a period of 15 years he administered EPI tests to 932 college students at three universities: Johnson State, the University of Vermont and the University of Maine. He was especially interested in the EPI test’s “E” scale, which is a measure of introversion-extraversion. A high score on the “E” scale equates to extraversion and a low score to introversion.
Astrologers associate the planet Jupiter with expansive, outgoing personality traits and Saturn with caution and reserve. Prof. Fink hypothesized that individuals with Jupiter in one of the plus zones identified by Gauquelin should test higher on the “E” scale while those with Saturn in these locations should test lower.
To analyze the collected data he reached out to astrological researcher David Cochrane, who at the time was enrolled in graduate classes in research methodology and statistics at the University of Florida. Cochrane is a past president of the International Society for Astrological Research (ISAR) and is Chairman and founder of the Cosmic Patterns astrological software company. At Florida University he got approval from the head of the Research and Evaluation Methodology Department to do the analysis as partial fulfillment for a three-credit independent study course. A professor in the Sociology Department, Monika Ardelt, mentored the project, providing “important suggestions that improved analysis of the results,” he said.
A Statistically Significant Result
“Statistical significance is the gold standard for an experimental design that evaluates whether a hypothesis is true or not. A result is generally regarded as being statistically significant if the probability of obtaining it is less than 5 percent, or what researchers call a p value of .05. Researchers should collect enough data to potentially obtain this level of significance,” Cochrane explained.
He points out that the placement of Jupiter or Saturn in one of the plus zones is only one variable among a great many possible astrological variables that might affect the “E” score. Also, non-astrological factors like genetics and the environment may factor into the outcome as well. With 982 cases, the researchers wanted to determine whether the effect of a single variable could be detected. It was.
“The result for this data analysis, which is known in statistics as a 2-tailed t-test, was significant at the .05 p value level. In a more sophisticated test that included age as a predictor of the E score the result was even better with a 2 percent probability. Effectively, the hypothesis was clearly stated and was confirmed by the result. Because the students did not know how Prof. Fink would analyze the data at the time they were tested there was no way for their test scores to have been influenced by the hypothesis tested,” he added.
According to Prof. Fink, if results of the research eventually are replicated in future studies with a similar design the significance will be twofold. For one thing, it will present to scientists in other fields suggestive evidence of the birth chart’s validity that will be difficult to dismiss out of hand without further serious investigation. Also, it will provide practicing astrologers with more precise guidelines for interpreting the strength of angular planets located in the Gauquelin plus zones.
Prof. Fink says his primary interest in the subject revolves around approaching astrology “as an alternative language system that can help clinicians assess and conceptualize their clients with different terminology, and also communicate with clients in vocabulary that is less stigmatizing to them than the psychopathologizing categories we traditionally employ in the mental health field.
“I speak to my students about the study after first describing to them the ground breaking work of the Gauquelins, and the reluctance of most empirical scientists to engage with the Gauquelin results. Students are generally fascinated with the work, but at the same time are somewhat daunted by the statistical and methodological issues that inevitably must be addressed,” he noted.
About the author
Edward Snow
Edward Snow is Managing Editor of the Astrology News Service (ANS). He is a former news reporter and publicist who has managed PR programs for national and regional clients. He has been a student of astrology for many years.
I'm not interested in reading articles.
You ask in your sebject-line why thsi person is being ignored, and I just posed you the One question that'll answer that question.
From the looks of it, it seems that you're saying that "Unless that someone is a part of the sect you're following, he's NOT going to be able to get to the same conclusions that You have come to".
Am I RIGHT on That, or have I Completely Misunderstood what it is that you're actually trying to Say here?
ACUTE OBSERVER: unless you studied or ever worked with statistics, my posted Ashtar article will not make any sense. I assumed you asked for a non-astrology source, and I provided you with findings from a psychology professor. Sorry if it is "an article." If you want to prove Gauquelin's findings wrong, you will probably have to do it in a manner that addresses it with statistics. This is because he proved astrology to be a viable source for researching certain areas for probability of success.
I apologize for any complexity; statistics was a difficult college subject.